Forecasting Unemployment Using Internet Search Data via PRISM

Big data generated from the Internet offer great potential for predictive analysis. Here we focus on using online users’ Internet search data to forecast unemployment initial claims weeks into the future, which provides timely insights into the direction of the economy. To this end, we present a novel method Penalized Regression with Inferred Seasonality Module (PRISM), which uses publicly available online search data from Google. PRISM is a semiparametric method, motivated by a general state-space formulation, and employs nonparametric seasonal decomposition and penalized regression. For forecasting unemployment initial claims, PRISM outperforms all previously available methods, including forecasting during the 2008–2009 financial crisis period and near-future forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic period, when unemployment initial claims both rose rapidly. The timely and accurate unemployment forecasts by PRISM could aid government agencies and financial institutions to assess the economic trend and make well-informed decisions, especially in the face of economic turbulence. © 2021 American Statistical Association.

Unmasking the Actual COVID-19 Case Count

This report presents a novel approach to estimate the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States, including undocumented infections, by combining the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza-like illness surveillance data with aggregated prescription data. We estimated that the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in the United States by 4 April 2020 was > 2.5 million.